In Iran, a Stirring of Green Protesters Produces a Clampdown – TIME


In Iran, a Stirring of Green Protesters Produces a Clampdown – TIME.

Iranian opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi photographed on Dec. 28, 2009 in Tehran

Iranian opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi photographed on Dec. 28, 2009 in Tehran

There was a palpable sense of excitement among the supporters of Iran’s opposition Green Movement in recent weeks. A mass rally was planned for Tuesday, the one-year anniversary of the house arrest of opposition leaders Mir Hussein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi, and a large turnout was expected. Flyers were posted on opposition websites and the Twitter-verse was abuzz with messages from Green supporters encouraging each other.

The Iranian regime squashed it. Even though Green supporters hit the streets in Tehran and smaller cities like Isfahan and Shiraz on Tuesday, they appeared to be outnumbered by security forces, according to accounts on opposition websites. There were also reports of arrests and sporadic clashes between riot police and demonstrators on some opposition sites. Still, the presence of demonstrators in the streets of large Iranian cities for the first time in a year shows that the Green Movement hasn’t been completely snuffed out. “You can’t gauge the amount of support for the opposition by the number of people in the streets. The strong crackdown by the government keeps many people away,” says Hossein Bastani, an Iran analyst based in Paris. “But when there’s any people at all in the streets, it still rattles the regime.” (MORE: Why Are Some U.S. Politicians Trying to Remove an Iranian ‘Cult’ From the Terror List?)

In two weeks, Iran’s leaders will ask voters to hit the polls for a key vote for the majlis or parliament. This will be the first election held in the country since the contested presidential election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009, which kicked off months of violent protests. The regime was clearly concerned that Tuesday’s protests could set the stage for another round of election violence and that’s why they came out in force. Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei raised concerns about the possibility of election unrest in a Friday prayers speech two weeks ago. “The busier the ballot box and the higher the rate of participation, the greater the prestige and strength of the country,” Khamenei said. And he warned of the potential pitfalls ahead. “The enemy doesn’t want this. It’s been two or three months that the enemy has spread propaganda to discourage people from participating in the elections. And some inside the country, without knowing what they’re doing, are saying the same things. This is a careless and mercenary attitude.”

Last year on Feb. 14, opposition leaders Moussavi and Karroubi called for the “25th of Bahman” protests, named after the date in the Iranian calendar, to show solidarity with the Arab Spring uprisings in the region. One of the popular slogans used by demonstrators last year was “Mubarak, Ben Ali, now it’s time for Seyed Ali,” a reference to Supreme Leader Khamenei. There was a massive turnout in Tehran and other cities and two protesters were killed, according to opposition sources. (Can Israel Stop Iran’s Nuke Effort?)

This year, the regime was well prepared. For more than a week, there has been a blackout on social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter. Even Gmail and Yahoo email were blocked. Internet speeds have almost ground to a halt. And then the intimidation campaign began: text messages and emails were sent out to students and activists threatening them with arrest if they participated in the planned demonstration on Tuesday. There was also a wave of arrests of activists in the lead-up to Tuesday’s protest, according to opposition websites.

Green Movement supporters had called for demonstrators to rally in the streets of Tehran by 4 p.m. on Tuesday. Photos posted on opposition sites showed that security forces had already flooded the streets by that time. Text messaging services were also shut down. The protesters who did hit the streets in Tehran largely stayed away from controversial slogans this year, as had been advised in the demonstration flyers.

The irony is that the Iranian regime’s crackdown on the “25th of Bahman” protest on Tuesday coincided with the one-year anniversary of the democratic uprising in Bahrain, a largely Shi’a-led protest movement that the Iranian government strongly supports.

“In Iran, if the security forces backed off for one day, only one day, you would see the real strength of the opposition,” says Bastani. That’s unlikely to happen anytime soon. In fact, the riot police are no doubt gearing up to hit the streets again for Iran’s parliamentary elections on March 2.

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Exclusive: West readies oil plan in case of Iran crisis


Exclusive: West readies oil plan in case of Iran crisis – Yahoo! News.

LONDON (Reuters) – Western powers this week readied a contingency plan to tap a record volume from emergency stockpiles to replace nearly all the Gulf oil that would be lost if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, industry sources and diplomats told Reuters.

They said senior executives of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises 28 oil consuming countries, discussed on Thursday an existing plan to release up to 14 million barrels per day (bpd) of government-owned oil stored in the United States, Europe, Japan and other importers.

Action on this scale would be more than five times the size of the biggest release in the agency’s history — made in response to Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

The maximum release, some 10 million bpd of crude and about 4 million bpd of refined products, could be sustained during the first month of any coordinated action, the plan says.

“This would form a necessary and sensible response to a closure of the strait,” a European diplomat told Reuters. “It wouldn’t take long to put in place if it was required … and would be unlikely to prove controversial amongst the (IEA) membership.”

A spokesman for the IEA confirmed that the Paris-based agency has an existing contingency plan that outlines a maximum stock release capability of 14 million bpd for a month. “We’re watching the situation carefully,” he said of Iran.

Tehran announced plans on Friday for new military exercises in the world’s most important oil shipping lane, through which some 16 million barrels of crude pass each day.

Iranian officials have threatened to block the strait if new sanctions, aimed to discourage Iran’s nuclear programme, harm Tehran’s oil exports.

Many oil experts believe the threats are rhetoric aimed at pushing up oil prices in a bid to avert sanctions.

“The IEA is monitoring the situation very closely, and is fairly concerned about it,” the diplomat said, confirming that senior management discussed Iran at the meeting on Thursday.

Western governments are targeting Iranian oil supplies and the European Union is readying a ban on the country’s crude oil exports of about 500,000 bpd with the goal of a final decision by month’s end, while Washington has already imposed financial measures to discourage business with Tehran.

Industry sources said the IEA is unlikely to release stocks in the event of an EU embargo on Iran. While Europe will import less Iranian oil, Tehran will seek to sell larger volumes to its biggest customers in Asia.

However, Bob McNally, a former White House energy advisor and now head of consultancy Rapidan Group, says even a more modest disruption — if Iran were to shut in some of its own production due to sanctions pressure, for instance — may require action.

“Given low OPEC spare capacity, IEA stock releases may need to be considered if prolonged supply disruptions even smaller than the flow through Hormuz were to take place,” he said.

U.S. congressman Edward Markey, the top Democrat on the House of Representatives’ Natural Resources Committee, said he would support U.S. releasing its reserves, although he views the emergency stockpiles as only a short term solution to the nation’s energy problems.

“America should always be willing to use our strategic oil reserves as a weapon against OPEC dictators, Wall Street speculators and any manipulators of the oil markets, and the recent saber rattling from Iran is no different,” Markey told Reuters in a statement.

Also watching closely are oil giants Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq who depend on the strait to move most of their crude.

If the Gulf channel gets blocked, Saudi Arabia, the world’s top exporter, can route more crude through the country’s East-West pipeline system to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.

PIPELINES AVAILABLE

Altogether that network has effective capacity of some 4.5 million bpd and after supplying Saudi domestic refineries in Jeddah, Riyadh, Rabigh and Yanbu – there is about 3 million bpd of export capacity available, said an industry source.

The neighboring United Arab Emirates also has export flexibility. It is nearing completion of the Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline, which will bypass the strait to ship as much as 1.5 million bpd to the Indian Ocean. Industry sources said the pipeline has been tested and the first flow of oil has already been pumped.

“It’s now only a matter of switching on a button,” one industry source said.

The IEA tapped emergency stocks in June to help supply refiners caught short by supply lost to Libya’s civil war. It was a move that angered the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries which felt the consumer group had overstepped its bounds.

Founded in 1974 in the wake of the Arab oil embargo, the IEA has only drawn down reserves on three occasions. Apart from last summer, member countries released oil in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina damaged offshore oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and made available 2.5 million bpd in January 1991 after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait disrupted about 4.3 million bpd.

(Additional reporting by Muriel Boselli in Paris, Humeyra Pamuk in Dubai, Dmitry Zhdannikov in London and Joshua Schneyer in New York, editing by Anthony Barker, Marguerita Choy and Bob Burgdorfer)

Iran Blocks American ‘Virtual Embassy’


Iran Blocks American ‘Virtual Embassy’ – NYTimes.com.

Not even the virtual embassies are safe in Iran.

After protesters overran the British Embassy in Tehran last month, Iranian officials said that they would move to better protect foreign embassies from such assaults and vandalism in the future.

That promise, however, appears not to have extended to a newly created “virtual embassy” of the United States in Iran. The Web site, which could be accessed briefly in Iran on Tuesday, had by Wednesday been blocked from view.

The semiofficial Fars news agency reported that blocking the site “was a decisive reaction by the Iranian authorities to the latest plots hatched by Washington against the Iranian nation.”

The report mocked the American effort at digital diplomacy, saying the site, designed to resemble the Web pages of American embassies around the world, would have been “ineffective” even if it had not been blocked: “the Web site would turn into a social Web site with no tangible result for the U.S.”

Those trying to visit the “virtual embassy” in Persian or English from Iran on Wednesday were redirected to a banal page of links to official information and local Internet services.

#Iran us virtual embassy blocked this morning in Tehran, when you go to http://t.co/BERGzvty this is what you get http://t.co/759HYEqfWed Dec 07 08:14:09 via web

A screen-shot image included in the Fars report — without explanation or any caption — appeared to suggest the involvement of Iranian hackers; the text of the report said it was blocked by Iranian authorities.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who announced plans to open the “virtual embassy” back in October as a complement to official State Department social media accounts in Persian on Facebook and Twitter, greeted visitors in a YouTube video. The site was official unveiled on Tuesday.

U.S. launches Virtual Embassy Tehran: http://t.co/xURxZKif | http://t.co/UJUnlTXs #Iran #gov20 #NetFreedomWed Dec 07 05:02:31 via web

As the site notes in a “disclaimer,” the United States has not had a diplomatic presence or brick-and-mortar embassy in Iran since Iranian students and militants took over the American Embassy in Tehran after the Islamic revolution, holding 52 Americans hostage from November 1979 to January 1981. The new site includes a section on the former embassy, which officially closed in April 1980.

At least one Iranian lawmaker lashed out at the “virtual embassy” — with its sections on international media coverage of Iran, consular information and tips on studying in the United States — calling it a recruiting tool for spies, Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times reported.

#Iran Basiji lawmaker Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh likens US virtual embassy 2 “publicly announcing publicly they are recruiting spies”Wed Dec 07 15:31:48 via web

Meanwhile, the Fars news agency, which frequently points to Occupy Wall Street in its reports on the United States, has taken to referring the breach of the British Embassy as the “Occupy Embassy” protest.